Well, that sucked.
But it only sucks as much as the Braves let it.
They lost three of four games to a loaded Padres team that is expected by most to at least make it back to the NLCS, if not further. The Braves are projected similarly, so convincingly losing a four game set at home is concerning, right?
Not really.
Lets break this series down in to parts to see how concerned we should really be.
The Good
Spencer Strider handled a ridiculously loaded lineup very well in his Thursday start in Atlanta’s only win of the series. He pitched five strong innings, three-run homerun aside.
He gave up three runs on a homerun to Matt Carpenter, but was dominant for most of the rest of his start. He labored a bit more in the fifth inning, but that sort of thing can help later in the season.
Strider has dominated some excellent lineups in his career, including the Dodgers and Mets in 2022. However, his only postseason start was a letdown against the Phillies in the 2022 NLDS where the young righty was possibly rushed back from an oblique injury sustained late in the season.
Handling a lineup like the Padres in an environment that is as close to postseason baseball as you can get in April will build character for the justifiably confident 24-year-old.
Furthermore, Orlando Arcia continued his hot start. He was 5-15 against San Diego this series with two walks and a homerun. Most notably, he walked the Padres off in game one.
The Insignificant
The items in this section aren’t truly insignificant, but shouldn’t be cause for concern long-term.
Dylan Dodd may have been tipping pitches in his start.
The young southpaw was dominant in five innings against an impressive Cardinals lineup in his MLB debut.
That did not continue against the Padres. He allowed seven earned runs in four and one-third innings on Sunday night.
Members of both the Padres and Braves subreddits noticed that Padres catcher Austin Nola told his teammate Jake Cronenworth that Dodd was slowing his delivery when throwing sliders. Several RBI hits, including a mammoth homerun from Nelson Cruz, were off Dodd’s slider.
This is something that Dodd can likely fix quickly, possibly by his next start. It is an issue that he was doing it at all, but pitchers get caught tipping pitches frequently, even future Hall of Famers like Max Scherzer. Scherzer was shelled against the Brewers last week because he was tipping his curveball.
If it continues, then it is absolutely a cause for concern. For now, it’s nothing more than extra work for Dodd and Braves pitching coach Rick Kranitz.
Dodd’s poor start was indicative of the overall poor pitching performance that Braves pitchers turned in. Like Dodd, it may only make them better.
Early in the season is the time to make mistakes, even if those mistakes mean getting blown out 10-2 on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. Atlanta has the pedigree to right the ship, and we should all expect them to do so.
The offense, like the weather, was cold. That’s ok. All there is to say on it is that maybe the top of the order wont collectively OPS over 1.100, but they probably won’t collectively OPS below .900. They will have more ups than downs.
The Bad
Jared Shuster can’t throw strikes.
Shuster struggled in the first inning of his debut start against Washington, and the Padres got to him the same way that the Nationals did.
Maybe I should say Shuster got to Shuster, as walks were killer for the young lefty.
He allowed four walks in four innings, along with six hits. It is impressive that he limited the damage to four runs despite those numbers, but the damage was largely self inflicted.
Shuster has designated himself the odd man out when Max Fried returns. He has not been the same pitcher who impressed in spring training. Shuster has already surrendered more walks in 8.2 innings pitched in the regular season than he did in 20.2 in spring training.
The talent is there, but the results are not. Let him work on command in AAA once Max Fried returns, and enable Shuster to be an asset to the club for years to come.
Lefty, left handed pitchers, left…
Oh yeah!
The Braves have a problem with left field.
Marcell Ozuna has two homeruns on the season, which is good. He also has a .074 batting average thus far, because the only hits he has are those two homers.
He strikes out over a third of the time, and is really making that $64 million contract he signed look like the one bad move of Alex Anthopuolos’ time as the Braves GM.
Eddie Rosario is struggling too. He has doubled Ozuna’s hit total on the season in two less at-bats, and lets just say that neither men are defensive specialists.
Rosario’s track record gives me hope that he may improve, but Ozuna is drifting, nay, sprinting further away from the MVP-vote getting 2020 season he had for the Braves.
Meanwhile, Adam Duvall is batting .455 for the Red Sox. Boston doesn’t figure to be contenders this year, so maybe Atlanta can trade for Duvall for a third time.
Sigh.
Worse than all of this, though, is Atlanta’s defensive effort.
For a team that swept the Cardinals off the back of what Atlanta skipper Brian Snitker described as “the best defensive game [he’s] ever seen,” they were atrocious.
Michael Harris II’s presence on the IL instead of center field certainly hurts, but Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuña Jr. headlined an uncharacteristically bad defensive showing for the Braves. Poor throws and heads-down baseball contributed massively to the Braves’ series loss this weekend.
There were a few wild pitches as well, which aren’t defensive stats, but are within the same brand of sloppy baseball that was shocking to see from the Braves.
Defense isn’t supposed to slump, but lets hope that a slump is all that last weekend was for the Braves in the field.
Moving Forward
The Braves are still first in the NL East. It doesn’t matter this early in the season, as any Mets fan will tell you, but with how ugly last weekend was, you’d expect the Braves to be buried in the standings.
The Mets are trying to find themselves, as are the Dodgers, Astros, Phillies and Cardinals. All of those are excellent teams, and it goes to show that fans need not panic this early in the season.
Atlanta hosts the Cincinnati Reds in a three-game set starting tonight. The Reds aren’t supposed to amount to much this year, so it would be nice to see the Braves take their frustrations out on them.
If not, don’t panic. You know the Braves wont.
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