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Much has been made of the Phillies’ and Mets’ offseason moves, rightfully so. The Mets added Justin Verlander to their rotation, easing the loss of Jacob DeGrom to Texas. The Phillies signed shortstop Trea Turner, who possesses an incredible blend of speed, power and contact hitting, on top of being rated as an average defender (this is huge for Philly, who have a hilariously inept group of fielders).

Both teams made other additions, complimenting their 2022 offseason spending well. The Mets have the highest payroll and luxury tax penalty in MLB history, totaling $376 million for 2023 (this includes $20 million still owed to Robinson Cano, who they released last year, and the $1.1 million they owe Bobby Bonilla every year through 2036). The Phillies are no slouches at $222 million, and even the Braves have upped their spending to $191 million.

The NL East has two teams trying to buy what the Braves have built. It also features two bottom feeder teams with little hope of improvement in the Nationals and Marlins, but they are not relevant now.

What the Mets and Phillies have spent for impact players, the Braves have developed them. Last year, Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II were top players at their positions as rookies. Vaughn Grissom came out of nowhere as an emergency 2B option after Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia were injured. The simple fact is that the Braves are a better organization, and their patience in developing prospects combined with savvy moves by GM Alex Anthopoulos propelled them to the World Series in 2021.

There is nothing wrong with spending lavishly for success in MLB, in fact, it’s nice to see billionaires spend ridiculous sums for our entertainment (and their personal gratification). However, this method does not seem to work. The last decade plus in MLB has seen World Series champions that were primarily built from drafting and signing players to develop, rather buying a team through free agency. The top teams have spent money for sure, notably the Dodgers and Astros, but their cores were home grown and supplemented through trades and free agents.

Essentially, the best teams do not spend more, but spend smarter. How smart are the Mets for entrusting their success largely to Verlander, 40, and Max Scherzer, 38? Well…

Both pitchers are still elite. Verlander was the AL’s Cy Young winner last year, and Scherzer has been characteristically dominant. Both players have also missed significant time lately to concerning injuries. Verlander missed much of 2021 and all of 2022 following Tommy John Surgery, and Max Scherzer has not pitched a full season (including playoffs) since 2019. He was excellent in 2021, but his ‘dead arm’ in the NLCS sealed the Dodgers’ fate as they fell to the Braves in six games.

What about the Phillies? They are more home-grown than the Mets for sure, but likewise are counting on high-risk moves for their 2023 success. Included in their additions are RP Craig Kimbrel, who has been a heart-attack merchant since 2018, and SP Taijuan Walker, who has collapsed post-All Star break the last two seasons. In fairness, they also added CP Gregory Soto from the Tigers, who was an All Star last year. That looks to be a safer move.

Both teams have also suffered fluke injuries to star players this spring. The Mets watched in horror as CP Edwin Diaz tore his meniscus while celebrating a victory in the World Baseball Classic. Diaz has been the best closer in the MLB for the last few seasons, making him a truly irreplaceable player.

The Phillies 1B Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL in spring training and will also miss the season. His loss is less of a blow than that of Diaz, but he is a consistent 30 HR, good OPS player. Look for post-Tommy John surgery Bryce Harper and 2022 NL HR leader Kyle Schwarber to pick up the slack.

All of this to say, the Braves have more depth, which is cheaper, younger, and typically healthier. SP Kyle Wright will not be ready to go for the start of the season, but LHPs Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster have impressed this spring and will both begin the season in the Braves rotation.

Atlanta’s lineup is complete for the 1-9 spots. The weak link, if you can call him that, is SS Orlando Arcia, who performed as an above-league average hitter in 2022 when he was called upon. It is less than ideal, but he is far from the worst option to replace Dansby Swanson, who left for $177 million from the Cubs this offseason.

Continuing the next man up theme, CP Raisel Iglesias could be an upgrade in replacing Kenley Jansen as the Atlanta closer. He surrendered only one(!) ER in 26.1 innings pitched for the Braves in 2022, after coming to Atlanta in a trade from the Angels.

The Braves also traded for C Sean Murphy from the A’s in a trade this offseason, and promptly signed him to a six-year contract. Murphy is one of MLB’s best catchers, as an above-average hitter and an elite defender. He offers the Braves an advantage in the ‘back-pick’ play, where the catcher quickly throws to first after receiving the pitch. This either keeps the runner close, or picks them off outright. This play will become crucial in 2023, where a new rule dictates that pitchers may only attempt two pick-off moves per batter. There are no limits on back-picks.

The biggest question mark for the Braves in 2023 is the performance of Ronald Acuña Jr, who was far from his usual self in 2022. He returned from a torn ACL suffered in 2021, and was still an elite baserunner, good defender, and above-league average hitter in 2022. The Braves are hoping for his usual numbers, which are closer to 1.000 OPS with 30+ HR and 30+ steals, but even a repeat of last year’s performance will be sufficient given the overall talent on the Atlanta roster.

Overall, the Braves are less top heavy. An injury to even Max Fried or Austin Riley would be bad, but not devastating. They have depth in their rotation, lineup, and especially bullpen. There is no player or position that you can point to as a true weakness.

This all is not to say the Braves will run away with the NL East, they probably wont. It should be close all year. The key factor, as we have seen in the last several years and beyond, is that depth is key to win a division in MLB, especially a division as loaded as the NL East. All of these teams should be given their due as World Series contenders, but the Braves’ depth separates them as the best suited to win the most games out of 162.

After that? The MLB playoffs are a crapshoot. The only thing you should count on is all three of these teams being a part of it.